REGIONAL+CONFLICTS

=PRC and ROC=

By Aron C.

PRC and ROC are not just letters in alphabet soup. While they share two letters, that is all. PRC stands for the People’s Republic of China, and ROC stands for the Republic of China. The two entities officially separated in 1949 when the Kuomintang withdrew to Taiwan under Chiang Kai-Shek and Mao Zedong became the Chairman of Communist China. __Both claim to rule each other as well as themselves, and both want everyone else to do so, complicating foreign relations__. Also, they each sanction using their militaries to take each other over. While they have many differences, they may reunite peacefully, or they may stay separate, with or without the other recognizing each other. However, military action by either party is still a possibility.

The People’s Republic of China started out as a movement of Communists backed by Soviet advisors. At first they were led by Otto Braun, who advised a frontal attack on the Nationalists, but this led to huge losses with little gains, and Mao Zedong took over and began a guerilla war. After the Japanese were defeated in 1945, the war escalated, and Mao slowly beat the Kuomintang nationalists. In 1949, Mao and the communists took over the capital of Nationalist China, Nanjing, and General Chiang Kai-Shek fled with thousands of his followers to the island of Taiwan, where he made Taipei his new capital. Kai-Shek continued to claim that he was the legitimate government of Mainland China, and Mao maintained that he was the ruler of both Mainland China and Taiwan. Mao was succeeded by several rulers, as was Kai-Shek, but each has claimed that they own the other, and this is written in both countries’ laws.



The People’s Republic of China’s main policy on Taiwan and the islands under its jurisdiction is the ‘One-China Policy’. Under this, Mainland China claims that Taiwan is the 43rd province, and that it is within its rights to take Taiwan over as a ‘rebellious province’ with its military (History). The ROC claims that it not only controls Taiwan, but also all of Mainland China! In its constitution, it claims itself the “sole, legitimate government” of both (The Chinese Revolution of 1949). Also, the ROC has laws legitimizing the use of force in regaining the mainland. And, in order to establish communications with the ROC, the other nation must renounce any ties with the PRC and agree to the ROC claim of dominion. This, however, is not strictly followed.



Most countries recognize the PRC as the legitimate government of China due to the importance of trade relations. China refuses to export or import anything from countries who recognize Taiwan, and China is a huge market for goods, as well as a valuable source of imports, so most nations find recognizing it an economic necessity. However, Taiwan was a bulwark against the spread of communism, and so America and Japan both have mutual defense treaties, part of Taiwan’s policy of “deterring Mainland China from attacking Taiwan by soliciting support from the international community.” (National Defense). America and Japan get around Mainland China’s requirement that nations not recognize Taiwan in a very interesting way. America has an agency called the American Institute in Taiwan that is officially a private company, but in reality is made up of State Department diplomats ‘on leave’. This allows the US to keep an embassy in Taiwan without the PRC complaining. Taiwan does the same thing with many of the countries that officially do not recognize it, via the Taiwanese Institute for Global Cooperation. Also, the United Nations (UN) has recognized both at different times. Beginning in 1945, the ROC had a seat in the UN General Assembly. When the ROC moved to Taipei, it kept its seat, while the PRC remained unrepresented. On October 25, 1971, the PRC gains a seat in the UN while at the same time ROC loses its seat. Every year, the ROC submits a petition for membership, but the PRC is on the Security Council and vetoes it immediately.



The People’s Republic of China maintains the largest land army in the world, and is rapidly updating it into a technologically advanced, modern force. The PRC has recently begun “rapid expansion of its armed forces” (National Defense). Every year, the PRC military holds an amphibious assault drill to prepare for a landing on Taiwan, and the PRC has also begun focusing on a more mobile force. Also, the PRC military is spending large amounts of money on amphibious tanks and armored personnel carriers, and has created a new class of amphibious assault helicopter carriers. These trends point towards a strengthening ability to invade an island nearby–and Taiwan is the only logical target. As governments do not spend money on things that are unnecessary, the PRC’s equipment acquisitions point towards an invasion of Taiwan in the near future. And, the PRC has the military ace of trump. It has several thousand nuclear and thermonuclear (hydrogen) bombs, and the missiles and bombers to carry them (The Components of the Armed Forces). So, the PRC’s armed forces are becoming more able to invade Taiwan, and also possess nukes.



The Republic of China, meanwhile, has opted for a leaner military. Its soldiers come from both conscription and enlistment, with “the conscription system aiming primarily to recruit soldiers, while the enlistment system recruits officers.” (National Defense). While the ROC army is small, its navy and air force are not. The ROC navy is very cutting edge, and has submarines, destroyers, frigates, minesweepers, and a few amphibious assault ships. It also has Special Forces units, giving it the ability to inflict serious casualties on any landing flotilla. The air force is full of state-of-the-art jets. It has US-built F-16 fighters, Indigenous Defense Fighters, and the ground-attack AH-64D Apache Longbow, capable of destroying twenty tanks within two minutes. This gives the ROC the ability to hold off, if not defeat, an attack.

So, the big question is: would Mainland China attack Taiwan? While many analysts say that China does not have enough marines to defeat all of Taiwan, China has the world’s biggest land army. If the PRC Marines punched a beachhead on Taiwan and hold it for only a single day, PRC would be able to land enough infantry to hold the beachhead for nearly a week. Within days, the PRC forces would outnumber the ROC defenders 10-1 or more, as well as have more tanks. Air superiority is necessary to attack, and ROC has advanced F-16 fighters and plans to “procure the advanced PAC-3 missile defense system”, but PRC has many times more fighters and bombers on par with the ROC forces, and would probably sweep away the ROC air force within a week (National Defense). However, this calculation does not include US intervention. The US has pledged to go to Taiwan’s aid, but the US forces take time to mobilize. The nearest carrier battle group would take two weeks to arrive, and the US rapid deployment force (RDF) would take a couple of days. China would have to prevent the US RDF from flying in, which means seizing airfields deep inside Taiwan within days. While this may be an iffy prospect conventionally, China is training a large airborne force that could seize the airfields the day of the attack and hold them for a few days until reinforced by ground. It would appear that PRC would be able to seize Taiwan before the US could respond. Then, would the US make peace and accept Taiwan’s defeat, or would the US do an amphibious assault to regain Taiwan? This question, however, pales in the face of the next: would the US and/or PRC use their nuclear arsenal to take over/defend Taiwan? Hopefully they will not, but there is always the possibility of war over Taiwan.



There is another possibility for the future of the two. They could gradually decide to become two separate countries, and reopen diplomatic relations. Already, the two have “agreed to open plane and boat links between them [the two], and there is an ambitious proposal being studied that would build a rail tunnel between the two countries” (Cross-Strait Relations). Also, trade is picking up between the two, and businesses in one of the states are opening branches in the other. And, there are a growing number of tourists that go from PRC to ROC and vice versa. This may decrease the hate in the next generation of Chinese and Taiwanese citizens, with salutary effects resulting.



In conclusion, both the Republic of China (ROC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) claim to rule each other and themselves. They also require nations to renounce ties to the other as a precondition to establishing a diplomatic relationship with them. And, they both have legalized military conquest of the other. However, they may unite peacefully, or agree to stay apart permanently as separate countries. Which option will the leaders of the ROC and PRC take? Only time will tell.

Word Bank
Withdrew..................... Chairman..................... Complicating................ Sanction...................... Recognizing.................
 * Words || Definitions ||  || Words || Definitions ||
 * Entities........................

Escalated.................... Legitimate....................

Jurisdiction.................. Province...................... Rebellious....................

Sole............................ Legitimate.................... Legitimizing.................. Renounce.................... Dominion.....................

Export......................... Import.......................... Economic necessity..... Bulwark....................... Mutual defense treaties. Deterring...................... Soliciting...................... Recognize.................... Via.............................. United Nations.............. Petition........................ Vetoes......................... || countries, states left, ran away from leader making something harder to understand to allow identifying

used more force allowed

under someone's laws a state not following the laws and rules

only allowed to apologize for and stop rule ownership

something sent out of a country something sent into a country something needed to help businesses shield agreements to defend each other preventing from working for accept by way of, through an international organization a request for says no to ||  || Amphibious Assault...... Acquisitions................. Possess......................

Leaner......................... Conscription................. Enlistment................... Flotilla.........................

Analysts...................... Punched a beachhead... On par......................... Intervention.................. Seizing........................ Pales...........................

Ambitious.................... Branches..................... Vice versa................... Salutary.......................

Precondition................. Establishing................. Diplomatic relationship.. Legalized..................... Conquest..................... || landing marines onto a country by water things one ones to own

smaller forcing people to join the armed services asking people to join the armed services a group of ships

professionals who study something to successfully make an amphibious assault equal to joining a dispute grabbing is smaller and less important than

hard and complicated, daring offices and the reverse good, beneficial

something that must be done before something else creating formal friendships between countries made a law for takeover ||